Been Said (here and there) Before . . . In Fact Just Last Week

It was funny to see this article in the WSJ just a day after having seen this one. It seems like I just discussed the e-reader phenomenon and the resulting withdrawals. What's the point of reading Don't Burn Your Books—Print Is Here to Stay by Nicholas Carr.

There were a couple of reasons. I have pasted two passages below. The first relates to the fact that e-book sells are slowing and declining a bit. I say this is good news. Hopefully, like I wrote in last week's post, this will encourage more aggressive pricing. Hopefully, we'll see a swing back down in the prices for mainstream novels on Amazon.

Half a decade into the e-book revolution, though, the prognosis for traditional books is suddenly looking brighter. Hardcover books are displaying surprising resiliency. The growth in e-book sales is slowing markedly. And purchases of e-readers are actually shrinking, as consumers opt instead for multipurpose tablets. It may be that e-books, rather than replacing printed books, will ultimately serve a role more like that of audio books—a complement to traditional reading, not a substitute.

This second passage is interesting for different reasons. I've seen this in practice and in my daily life. I'll run around to people constantly talking about how much I love my Kindle. I was an early adopter. I didn't mean to be, but thanks to the wife, I was. I loved traditional books. LOVED EM! I never wanted an e-reader. Then I gave it a try and I can't look back. It's not that I don't want to look back. I can't. I've tried. I love that e-reader too much to go back.

The initial e-book explosion is starting to look like an aberration. The technology's early adopters, a small but enthusiastic bunch, made the move to e-books quickly and in a concentrated period. Further converts will be harder to come by. A 2012 survey by Bowker Market Research revealed that just 16% of Americans have actually purchased an e-book and that a whopping 59% say they have "no interest" in buying one.

Personally I doubt we've reached the pinnacle of demand for e-reader. They'll continue to evolve and find new markets (see the graphic that I found at http://dvice.com/archives/2010/01/skiff-takes-e-r.php). But unlike the media maven quoted in the article, I am not going to predict the death of the traditional book by 2015. That's just silliness.