Vapor Trail

I am currently working on my next novel, Vapor Trail, that delves into the harmful and debilitating results of believing too much in a conspiracy theories.

One of my favorite things to do every month is to listen to a talk radio show that sponsors a conspiracy call in day, appropriately on the night of each month's full moon. I love listening to folks call in and explain their particular conspiracy. In most cases the conspiracies don't hold water, most deal with cabal's of bankers running the world in some sort of shadow government. Most people who call in believe in what Popular Mechanics calls "The Myth of Government Hyper Competency." I've worked for the government. We barely made it up to competency, much less "hyper."

The conspiracy I delve into in Vapor Trail is the mystery behind the downing of TWA Flight 800 back in 1996. I know that Nelson Demille has a great book, Sky Fall, that hits on this same subject, but mine doesn't focus on the flight as much as it does on the deterioration of a character's life due to his believe in a conspiracy, a subject I started researching by reading Among the Truther's by Jonathon Kay.

Today I ran across this snippet in the WSJ in an article by Amanda Foreman called Conspiracy Theories: Everybody's Doing It:

It doesn't help that some of the most absurd-sounding conspiracies have turned out to be true: The Central Intelligence Agency really did feed LSD to unsuspecting civilians in the 1950s as part of a mind-control experiment. Or that some of the technically plausible ones have been patently false: The moon landings were not filmed on a sound stage.

It is human nature to look for a linear cause to explain complex events. The worse the tragedy, the greater the need for a narrative that does not involve dumb luck. Eight hundred years after the destruction of Constantinople by the knights of the Fourth Crusade, the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches are still unable to agree on who or what tipped the two Christian empires into a ruinous fight against one another.

One aspect of conspiracy theories that I hope to dig down into is the theory of Occam's Razor, that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. I love the way conspiracy theorist will create an incredibly complex series of event and solutions to a problem that has many more simpler solutions. 9-11 provides 75% of the material during the call in show, and what I like about that is that my character in Vapor Trail visits other "experts" (conspiracy theorists) along his journey to the truth and most of them are focused on 9-11. None are looking at his conspiracy, the one that he finds has the simplest, most plausible explanation that everyone could see if they were just looking at it correctly.

Just as On the Edge was a step up in complexity compared to Toe the Line, Vapor Trail will be a step in the same direction. It's a tough theme to take on, but so far it's exciting to be in the midst of it.