Prediction Noted and I Agree

One of my favorite political writers, John Derbyshire, a true curmudgeon, has provided a list of predictions for 2012 at National Review (here).

He provides his predictions in an interesting style, for instance the list includes: "The following things will become less popular in the advanced world" and "The following things will get better."

One of the things that he puts in the list for "get better" is e-book formats. I agree. But that's not the reason for this post. It's the two words he puts within his final string of predictions:

"One or more of the following canoes will arrive at the lip of Niagara: the euro, the North Korean government, the finances of a major U.S. state or municipality, the student-loan system, Eric Holder, book publishing, China’s banking system."

Firstly, I love the way he phrases that prediction for disaster. I wish I had thought of it. Secondly, I agree with his prediction on book publishing.

The other day I read and article in the WSJ by Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg called E-Book Readers Face Sticker Shock (here) in which he explains that e-books from noted writers or potential best sellers will be priced the same or higher than their conventionally printed brothers as they have more features, can be read on multiple platforms, more portable, etc.

This is the wrong way to go publishers. The way the masses see it is e-books save you on printing and shipping costs, we should see those savings when we buy the books. Not to mention the fact that we can't place that sucker on a shelf as a household ornament when we buy it as an e-book.

Sorry to say with the trend that that article shows, Derbyshire's prediction are a certainty.